Introduction
Toshio Kuroda
Director Emeritus
Nihon University Population Research Institute
Asia the Key to the 21st Century
Mankind Gone "Beyond"1) "Limits to Growth"2)
"Limits to Growth" (1972), a report for a Club of Rome project launched against the background of the unprecedented population expansion of the 1960s, warned of the demise of the human race that would be brought by continuous population growth and economic development. Despite the increase in population, the world resting resting on its laurels with the achievement of an affluent standard of living reacted against the alarm with surprised cries of "No way," or "That's too exaggerated."
However, "The Limits to Growth" constituted an important milestone in attracting serious public concern to the explosive increase of population. The theory of population growth control has fought its way through many complications mainly thanks to the ceaseless efforts made by the United Nations, and has registered some advances.
The (world) birth-rate, which determines population growth, has declined remarkably. Already 51 countries (with a combined population accounting for 44% of the world total) have reduced their total fertility rates, which measure the magnitude of population reproduction, to a point below the replacement level, and the number of such countries will amount to 88 in 2015, when, it is estimated, they will account for two thirds of the world population. Attention must be given to the fact that almost all the developed countries have attained the replacement level of population, which denotes two or less children per mother, and some developing countries including Korea, China, Singapore, and Thailand have also reached these low birth-rate levels. Therefore, assuming that control of population growth will be further reinforced, it may be considered that the world is beginning to succeed in solving the problem of population expansion warned of by the Club of Rome in 1972.
"Beyond the Limits： Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future" published in 1992, 20 years after "Limits to Growth" , pointed out that although the species was already in the process of going beyond the limits to growth, there were some new developments, on the other hand, which implied availability of solutions.
