D. CHINA'S ROLE IN REGIONAL SECURITY
1. China Threat： Potential Power with Lots of Potential Problems
There was much talk about a China threat in 1996 and such a possibility is again being discussed recently in anticipation of the coming general election in the United States. If we go to the China section in any library we will sure find half a dozen of books with "giant awaken," "yellow peril," "the dragon awakes" in the titles of the books. Yes, with a country as big and populous as China, it is always threatening when it "gets its acts together". This is the conventional threat that people perceive. One can say that it is "genetic". It is the same kind of threat associated with the economic giant Japan with its military potential. How can Japan rid itself of such image and potential?
Yet, there is another kind of threat that is not often discussed. The threat of a collapsed, fragmented China. In fact, some analysts pointed out that in the long history of China there are more time when China was fragmented then when it was united and the damage a fragmented China brought to the region and people around it was much more devastating than a mighty united one. People in the region only know it too well from their experience in dealing with the boat people from Vietnam. And the magnitude of a similar exodus from China will be a hundred fold. Because of the rapid economic growth China has experienced in recent years, there is plenty of evidence that the coastal-interior gap is increasing. Every year thousands of unemployed rural labourers crowded train stations of cities looking for better life. Ethnic and religious conflicts have grown numerous. The economy is full of problems of miss-management, unbalanced growth, corruption and inefficiency. A meltdown is not unlikely and would be more messy and difficult to deal with.
2. Engagement or Isolation?
In view of the above discussion, it is quite clear that isolation would not be the right way to deal with a China threat in either sense. Here I would agree with the United States' policy of engagement. It is only when China shares a common interest and destiny with the rest of the region that it will pose no threat to the region.
