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d. China remains a communist power - the most important alongside Russia. The most successful too; rare combination- authoritarian rule with capitalism;

 

e. An emerging economic power - by year 2010, its GNP could surpass that of Japan - and will invariably overtake Japan in economic terms - by its share size and the way GNP/GDP is calculated;

 

f. It is a ruthless power - the Chinese history is full of incidents of violence. The June 1989 incident - Tiananmen Square incident. It could use such massive destructive power on Taiwan - which China considers a renegade province. In my view, recent developments could have given China more confidence in dealing with Taiwan;

 

g. It is an assertive power - it sees itself as the legitimate leader in world communism - because of the situation in Russia. The recent Russia- China Hospital Summit - points to a possible strategic entente between the two former communist powers. It is possible that the entente is not directed at any third party - but simply to re-order the communist house. It could also signal a new beginning in preventive diplomacy. Preparation against a possible US strategic overtures in the Far East. I am pretty sure that China is not pleased with the US treatment of North Korea - a client state on its border. But while it could be only a paper convenience, Russia could help China with advanced military technologies at "friendly" prices.

 

3. Will China become a threat to the region? Threat against whom? Difficult to answer - but we can predict a few inclinations based on certain philosophical parameters:

 

■ In international relations - there are no permanent enemies/friends only permanent interests;

 

 

 

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