■ Exodus of millions of people - Malaysia is the most immediate target- Singapore and the Philippines. Even before the political crisis in Indonesia occurred, a few million of displaced Indonesians have fled to Malaysia in search of jobs and security.
■ A destabilised Indonesia means a loss of an important anchor for Asean security.
■ Some groups in Indonesia want to break the country into parts. If succeeded this would have serious implications for other communities in the region demanding for greater autonomy, for example the muslims in the South Philippines. The Mindanao-Muslim autonomy issue in still not settled. A Christian majority pitted against a strong Muslim insurgency movement.
■ The anti-Chinese feeling may spawn similar anger elsewhere where Chinese forms an economically strong minority - Philippines - Malaysia - Thailand - Vietnam - Cambodia - Myanmar. The Balkanisation of Indonesia could inflame social tensions elsewhere.
■ Asean has lost a strong/stable leader after jakarta went into a political spin. Asean countries paid a lot of deference to Suharto and Indonesia - Habibie does not get much support from Asean countries. No does any other Asean leader.
■ Indonesia is an important regional power. It controls resources as well strategic sealanes of communication. The Wesdt and Japan Cannot allow Indonesia to be controlled by unfriendly forces. Hence it is essential for Japan, US, China and the international organisations to lend a helping hand to help Indonesia to recover quickly.
