This organisation was first mooted by Suharto as a way to gain more support from the Islamic traditionalists groups. When Suharto was in power ICMI was placed under the care of Vice President Habibie;
■ While it is too early to speculate, it now would appear that those closely associated with ICMI are in power (Habibie, Adi Sosoho,the Minister of Cooperatives) and these people receive good support from the Islamic radicals as well as the traditional Muslim forces in the country;
■ Islamic extremism ala Taliban in Afghanistan or Iran is not likely in Indonesia in the foreseeable future; It is more likely that the Indonesian Islamic political ideology to remain secular, yet it would incorporate more Islamic values in its content than is now present in its political ideology. It would be surprised for some interest groups not to pressure the Government to revise the Pancasila ideology which has been cleverly applied by the Suharto's regime to suppress radical demands from the Muslim groups. There will be calls for return to more fundamental Islamic way of life but there will be no strong pressures to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state.
■ Nationalist forces are everywhere lurking for opportunities to make a political impact and comeback in Indonesian body politics. But like the Islamic-based groups, they are split in orientation and they are competitive in nature. Their political agenda is almost identical, they want political power. It is not likely they will pull forces together as they are generally suspicious of each other. In my view despite their strong following, on their own - they can't form power. They have to form coalition with other power centres to seek legitimacy in a nation that prides itself as one that derives strength and unity from cultural and religious diversity.
