Before making any prognosis on the factors affecting Indonesia - let me try to delineate to you some key aspects of Indonesian body politics to get a better perspective of Indonesian politics and its impact on the region.
The major actors in Indonesian body politics are the following：
■ Political parties;
■ Military;
■ Islam;
■ Nationalist forces;
■ Students.
Let's discuss the students first. They have played a role of the catalyst - or social change - if you like at critical periods in Indonesian history. They have been made use of by various groups - political parties, military institutions, nationalist forces - to get certain things done. For example, when Suharto wanted to depose Sukarno - he instigated the students to stage riots in Jakarta and elsewhere. Now the students have been used to bring him down and also to bring him to justice. The students are also demanding for some political changes. But the students' power is also limited; they do not have proper institutions to mobilise popular support that could compete with political parties or machinery.
The political parties - there were plenty during Sukarno's period - the Nachdatul Ulama, Masyumi representing different interest groups and ideologies. Sukarno had a NASAKOM cabinet - comprising of the Nationalists, Religious Groups and Communists - before he was deposed in 1965. Sukarno ruled Indonesia with an iron first - and proclaimed a regime of "Guided Democracy" using 1945 Constitution as the excuse.
