ABRI, overstretched in trying to maintain order in the vast Indonesian archipelago in the lead-up to June elections, now seems to want to cut East Timor loose as soon as possible. In March 1999, Indonesia and Portugal reached agreement for a UN-sponsored 'direct vote' on East Timor in July. It seems likely that the East Timorese will opt for independence, rather than for autonomy within the Republic of Indonesia.
Knock-on effects could be felt elsewhere, including in West Irian, now Irian Jaya, which has a long border with Papua New Guinea (PNG). Like the East Timorese, the people of Irian Jaya (and PNG) are Melanesians, not Asians. In the early 1960s, Australia opposed the incorporation of this remnant of the Dutch empire into Indonesia. Pockets of opposition―the West Papua independence movement have continued to exist. They now show signs of revival.
Because of its continuing security commitments to PNG, Australia has been helping to deal with secessionism on the island of Bougainville, north of the Solomons, where Australian unarmed Australian soldiers are stationed as peacekeepers. Australia must now also worry about a possible revival of the Irian Jaya secessionist movement, on PNG's other flank.
The maritime powers will expect Australia to 'fix' the East Timor problem, which is closely linked to SLOC security. But stability in East Timor is far from assured. If East Timor opts for independence, warring groups will have to be disarmed before any interim administration can be put in place. Australia is holding two infantry brigades on readiness, but hopes that a combat troop presence will not be needed. It aims to help engineer a solution by which UN-sanctioned troops are committed before any Indonesian withdrawal, with the agreement of the main factions on East Timor.
If the East Timor problem can be set aside, Australia and Indonesia hope that secessionist movements elsewhere in the archipelago, including in Aceh (north Sumatra) and Kalimantan (Borneo), can be contained. That outcome is far from certain. The maritime powers have good reason to be concerned about Indonesia, and the possible implications of continuing instability there.
Japan： drinking in good company
Lee Kuan Yew is reported to have said that encouraging Japan to engage in UN peacekeeping was like offering a drink to a recovering alcoholic. Others have retorted that social drinking is no problem; it is drinking alone that makes trouble.5 Operating in 'good company' with countries such as Australia, Japan can be gradually encouraged to take more responsibility for regional security. Once the US-Japan defense guidelines become law, Japan will be better placed to do so.
