9. Fuels and Lubricating Oils
9.1 Fuels
9.1.1 Trend of Oil Demand
The year of 1997 started with the accident of the heavy oil outflow from M/V Nakhodka, followed by uneasy news including the bankruptcy of financial agencies in Japan, the currency crisis in Asia, and the disorder of the spot market of crude oil at the year end. However, the world economy was still in good condition following the previous year, reflecting the economic growth of Asian countries. The quantity of the crude oil processing in the world on 1997 was 73.6 million B/D, and increased by 3% compared with the previous year (Table 9.1), and the production increase of the crude oil production in Middle and South America, Africa, Asia and Old Russia was remarkable. (Table 9.2)
In the No. 103 OPEC General Conference in November, the raise of the upper limit of the production framework was agreed to start from the beginning of 1998 so as to cope with the increase in demand in Asian areas. The trend in the price of the crude oil was at the level of 24 dollars per barrel in the beginning of the year, taking the price of the Dubai crude oil as an example. However, from the trend of warm winter, the price was reduced to 16 dollars after the 1996/1997 demand season, and then, shifted on the level of 17-18 dollars. Then, in spite of the demand season, the price was rather dropped down rapidly to 15 dollars at the end of December. The energy demand was considered to be braked by the mitigation of the demand/supply balance due to the increased allotment of OPEC taken by the market in advance, and the financial and currency crisis in Eastern Asian countries.
As for the situation in Japan, the processed quantity of crude oil was 4.32 million B/D which was increased by about 3.6% compared with the previous year. The import of the petroleum products was 3.17 million KL which was reduced by 28% compared with the previous year mainly due to sharp decrease in the heavy oil for the power generation. The export of the petroleum products of crude oil was 9.45 million KL, and increased by 41% compared with the previous year, reflecting the substantial liberalization of the petroleum products export from July. The domestic sales of the bond heavy oil (A, C) in 1997 was 5.81 million KL, and increased by 35.5% compared with the previous year, and the import of 0.44 million KL (77% reduction), the domestic production of 4.74 million KL (122% increase), and the ratio of the import/production were greatly different from those in the previous year. (Table 9.3)
