The above computational results point to a dramatic rise in the burden placed upon middle-aged Japanese women providing in-home nursing for the infirm elderly. These results are likely to change drastically, depending upon the future availability of both (i) public support services through social security programs such as the Golden Plan and its subsequent plans beyond the year 2000, and (ii) long-term care institutions. The degree to which care for elderly patients is internalized through Japan's traditional familial support network is also contingent upon the magnitude of the future demand for female labor, and upon the commitment of future cohorts of women to care for their elderly kin with serious infirmity or illness at home. In view of the financial constraints on the part of the government, the recent trend for female paid employment (Ogawa and Clark, 1995; Ogawa and Ermisch, 1996; Ermisch and Ogawa, 1994), and the rapid filial normative shift (Ogawa and Retherford, 1993b; Retherford, Ogawa, and Sakamoto, 1996), the financial and manpower outlook for providing care for Japanese infirm elderly is rather gloomy.
4. Policy Responses Available to Japan
The projected results for the macroeconomic and demographic variables suggest that the population of Japan will age at an accelerated speed, which will, in turn, give rise to Japan's slowed economic growth and increased social security costs. These results accord with the government's outlook for 21st-century Japan (Economic Planning Agency, 1983). Although both the abundance of high-quality human resources and the high saving rate have been two principal driving forces of Japan's remarkable postwar growth performance, it is very likely that both of them will drastically change as the aging processes advance over the next few decades. In addition, the borrowing of technologies from the Western developed countries has also played a crucial role in placing the Japanese postwar economy on the high-growth path, but Japan has now entered the stage where she has to develop her own new technology, by allocating greater resources for research and development activities. Undoubtedly, these financial, manpower and technological constraints will pose formidable challenges to the Japanese bureaucracy, businesses and households. What should be done to cope with these challenges?
