In Japan the feminist movement has not been influential; labor force participation by married women, while increasing, has been lower than in the United States and Western European countries; the oral contraceptive has been banned for medical reasons; and the divorce rate is lower than in the West and is rising more slowly. Why, in spite of conditions such as these that presumably would tend to favor higher fertility, has the Japanese total fertility rate recently been between 1.4 and 1.5, well below replacement level?
Actually, there are good reasons for the current low fertility in Japan. It is in a large part a response to that country's resource-scarce environment. Today, the Japanese population, at some 126 million, numbers about half that of the United States in an area smaller than the state of California. Japan produces practically no oil and little iron ore, and it imports much agricultural produce from such countries as the United States, Canada, and Australia. A scarcity of resources relative to population has figured in Japanese history since the 1860s, when massive efforts to industrialize began.
Distinguishing Japan and the surrounding East Asian region from other parts of Asia is the pervasive and deeply rooted doctrine of Confucianism. The role of Confucianism in Japan is probably comparable to that of Protestantism in Europe at the dawn of industrialization, as depicted by Max Weber. Confucianism emphasizes the ethical value of hard work, asceticism, frugality, and regularity in the daily conduct of life.
What happens when the scarcity of resources and the ethic of hard work collide? The answer is fierce competition within the society. This has led to the emergence of a quasi-meritocracy with an overemphasis on educational attainment. This in turn has contributed to declining fertility. After World War II, Japanese fertility fell sharply. Between 1960 and 1974 the rate was relatively stable at a level slightly higher than replacement, but after 1974 it declined to its current unprecedentedly low level. (It is note-worthy that 1973 was the year of the "oil shock"： the Arab oil embargo reinforced the psychological resource-scarcity syndrome in Japan.)
In a resource-scarce but advanced society, fierce competition permeates every corner of life. Rigorous entrance examinations for ranking universities and for large and prestigious corporations become common. Resource scarcity narrows the chances for a better quality of life. Demographic responses to such an environment are to delay marriage and reduce family size.
An attempt will be made to elaborate briefly on three features of modern Japan that are relevant to the current fertility picture： the postponement of marriage in response to scarce resources and narrow life chances; tough entrance examinations for admission to high schools and universities; and the emergence of a mass-consumption culture.
