Aging of Workers
Working-age population, 15 - 64 years, has been consistently increasing since the war, and according to the 1995 National Census the population has reached the 87,260,000 level. From the results of the medium variant assumption, since the population reached a peak in 1995, it has turned to a downward trend. In 2030 it will reach below 70,000,000 level, and then by the year 2050 it will reach 50,000,000. Especially, the population of the new graduates entering the work force for the first time including ages 20 - 24 will rapidly start to decline from 99,100,000 in 1995 to 61,800,000 by the year 2025. Thereafter the year 2050, the absolute numbers for the working-age population will continue to decline consistently affected by low fertility rate with the declined new population. By the year 2100, the final
year of the reference population projection, it will reach 38,090,000, which is below the half of the present level.
When studying the differences on the assumption of fertility rate by referring to the upper and lower variant assumptions, the upper variant indicates that although the fertility rate changes at a high degree, the decline of the working-age population is rather slow. It is projected that it will reach below 70,000,000 level in 2035. And thereafter, the population will continue to decline to 61,450,000 in 2050 to 52,240,000 in 2100. Although in reference to the high variant assumption, for the long term the population will not decline more than 1/2. Still it is indicative of a declining trend of the population. The low variant shows that it will reach below the 70,000,000 level in 2027 ; then below 50,000,000 level in 2050. By the year 2100 it will be curtailed to 27,760,00 level.
Thus, affected by the future fertility rate trend, there are differences with the level of declining degree and rapidity related to the working-age population. However, based on the assumption of the continuous decline of the future fertility rate, the decline trend of the population is inevitable. And, such a change in population may result in the decline of a labor force among the young generation, aging of the labor force, and declining of the total labor force.
Arrival of the Advanced Aging Society
According to the medium variant, the children's population will continue to decline. While the working-age population has started to decline, the aged population, above 65 years, will continue to increase significantly from the present level of 18,000,000 to 33,000,000 by 2025. Thus, a proportion of the population of the aged will reach the 25% level in 2015 from the current 14.6% (see Figure 5). Although the population will shift to approximately 33.000,000 from the year 2015 until 2050, due to the low fertility rate, the proportion will increase by 2015 and thereafter. By 2050 the population will reach the 32% level.
In examining the trend after 2050, the population of the aged will shift to a declining trend in the middle of the 21st century and thereafter. Because of long term decline of the fertility rate, the aging people will be less than the previous generation. Therefore, the population of
