2) Traffic volume forecasts by different transport means
(a) Estimation model of shared traffic volume rate
For the traffic volumes by different kinds of transport means, time required for transport and fares (including charges) are assumed as the factors that people to choose a transport means. This is a logit model forecast. The model formula to estimate a shared traffic volume rate by different kinds of transport means is shown below.
Because the above model formula is easy to estimate shared traffic volume rates of two different transport means, 2-step forecasting is applied here, as shown in Figure 5.5-3.
Parameters for the logit model are estimated based on the present transport conditions inter regions. Estimation results are indicated in Table 5.5-4.
Figure 5.5-3 Forecast steps of shared transport volume rates
