In 1947, the United Nations announced or published a report for underdeveloped countries entitled "Measures for the Economic Development of Underdeveloped Countries."

When this report was published, many people were quite skeptical about the possibility of success because it has stated that in the developing nations, the population growth of 1.2 percent was the economic growth within the range of couple of percentage points.

Forty years later today, population has increased dramatically, so has the economy. The growth has surpassed the expectations or estimates.

What has allowed this? One is that we did not have any measure. And also, we have been able to promote international cooperation and collaboration. One good example is the success of the Green Revolution. And also the social reform have been progressing well, and that has been emphasized by the report. There were successful land reforms. And also in China, their ... revolution is a success. So this social transformation, which were not mentioned in the Evening Report then, had occurred to a benefit. So those were the very beneficial sets of conditions which worked in favor.

Half a century has passed, as mentioned by Dr. Kuroda, what will happen in 20 years time? What is the world like in 30 years time?

Professor Brown has put forth a very famous forecast. Professor Brown says that conventional oppose economy growth for the past population growth, to pass food production increase. If they continue into the future years, then given the current productive level, can we satisfy the needs. This conclusion is very pessimistic. There will be an increase of population, economic growth will continue. There will be increased demand for food, certainly.

Now, in the meantime, if we can continue to increase food production, even under such circumstances, we may see shortages of food. Then, given such forecast, or if that forecast is of any value, what are the concrete phenomena that we'll be experiencing if we increase the output of food production?

Professor Kuroda has put the question mark about the possible increase of food. Now, I do not have an answer. But if we cannot increase the production of food as we used to, well, according to Malthus, he says that if there is lesser supply of food, we will see the reduction of population growth. That is not true. We have the special security, medical services and other welfare ... so the Malthus Theory may not prove to be true.

And then what happens? Then, productive income should be reduced. Which means that the growth rate would come down as well. And in because of such change for a short term or time, or if there are temporary famines or dire shortages of food, it may give rise to a major turmoil or social instability in the world. So those things could happen.

Now, Professor Brown has given his version of forecast into the future and he talks about the possible increase of food production in the future. But not withstanding what he says, there is something that he has overlooked, and that is, we are not taking full advantage of