Agriculture in the Government of India, and we have especially invited him to very briefly give to us some background about agricultural policies. Then, we have Dr. Kawano to whom you already know. He has done a lot of work in this area. And then, we have our very own professor, Dr. Kuroda, and they will also give their own perspective.

So, I would like first Dr. Kuroda to speak and the time is ten minutes.

DR. TOSHIO KURODA (JAPAN):

Thank you very much, Chairman.

So this is a very difficult issue. This relates to the survival of the mankind, and we are trying to address the issue of food in relation to population. In other words, we are trying to take a microscopic perspective in addressing this issue.

As you are aware, ladies and gentlemen, that 200 years ago, Robert Malthus, famous Britain economist, talked about the population and food. He made a very pessimistic paper called "The Principle of Population." Now, it's 200 years ago. The population will increase in a geometric manner whereas the food production will increase linearly, and therefore, there will be overpopulation. Eventually, all of you will face a disaster situation, The death rate, disaster and fatigue would all contribute to increasing the death rate, meaning less population. And then when we have enough reduction in population, then the population will once again increase, then the food supply situation would recover and the cycle will repeat. So the fate of the new mankind is a very pessimistic one. That was the projection made 200 years ago.

Now, what has happened to us for 200 years? As you are aware, since Malthus, the industrial revolution took place on the face of this earth as well as agriculture revolution. The food production increased dramatically and after world War II, what happened? As many of you know, for example, Green Revolution took place here in Asia which created a significant role especially in this part of the world. And as a result, the food production increased by three percent per annum until recently, especially since 1 950 up to 1990, over four decades.

Surprisingly, the food production increased by three percent per annum. So, the problem was now, the oversupply of food. In retrospect, this is a surprising fact.

Now, what happened to the population after World War II? In the 1960's, the population grew by 2010 Per annum, a surprising rate. But since the food production increased by 3010 per annum, so, despite this dramatic increase in the population of2010 Per annum, we were able to feed most of the people. Roughly, the growth rate in population is about I .5010, that is on a global level. So the question is: are we now free of the food supply question? Are we free of these concerns after two hundred years? Is there no concern that we have to have regarding population and food? Can we say that given the fact that the food sup-ply increase is faster or outpacing the growth rate of population as a result of green revolution and some other technological revolution?