I've been working in Vietnam for 6-7 years in transport sector, and I'm now engaged in the conduct of the urban transport master plan for HCMC since last August. Today, I'd like to explain an approach how to develop public transport in big cities like Ha Noi and HCMC in Vietnam. Now as everybody knows, motorization and urbanization as well as the economic growth has been very rapidly making progress in Vietnam and has been causing traffic congestion and dangers on the roads as well as environmental problems. So without solving these problems, the cities cannot survive. However, making shift from private transport to public transport is not very easy. It's a very difficult task. But however, it's a must for both Ha Noi and HCMC. Without developing a good transport system, cities cannot meet the demand of the people in the future. Fortunately, this time, the Government of Viet Nam has a very strong will to promote public transport in big cities. Than as we can see from the presentation this morning, model bus projects has just been introduced in two cities and they have been doing quite well, especially in Ha Noi. And according to the result of our survey, people's perception also has been changing very rapidly. 5 years ago, nobody was talking about buses. 5 years ago, nobody wanted to give up motorcycles and when we talk about how to control motorcycles, everybody was laughing. But now, results of our survey, which we have done for 20,000 households in HCMC, 95% of the people are supporting the development of public transport and also 90% of the people are thinking ownership and use of motorcycle has to be controlled. So it's a very healthy mind of the people. So I think it's a very good time for the society to seriously consider jointly with the Government and the people how to develop a good public transport for these big cities.

As you see here, big cities like Ha Noi and HCMC, with the population of more than 3-5 million definitely need good urban rail transit system in the future, otherwise the demand cannot be met. However, the urban rail transit is very expensive. As you see here, this is just an example: elevated railway cost at least USD40-50million/km, and subway will cost more. We dislike this expensive thing, maybe even in after 20 years, in reality, both Ha Noi and HCMC probably can afford to buy 2-3 lines or 30-50 km. That is a maximum in reality. On the other hand, future transport demand of the city is very big. Total demand of the transport is not less than 8-9 million trips for Ha Noi and almost 18 million trips per day in HCMC. Assuming we have 2-3 railway lines, it can only accommodate 1-1.5 million passengers per day only. How about the remaining demand? That means even we have the urban rail transit, majority of the demand should be met by some other mode, which is buses. So the bus is not only important now, but also important in the future. And of course, urban rail transit has a big role. What is the role of urban rail transit? There are two: one is mitigation of traffic congestion along the major corridors with the providing of faster traveling time and lower travel cost for urban rail passengers and less congestion for other road users, but more importantly, that expensive project is very important to guide the future urban growth in the cities. Both cities Ha Noi and HCMC have to accommodate in the future 20 years probably additional 2-3 million people. Where these people can be accommodated? Of course we can develop the housing estates but without good transport commuting to the offices or going to commercial centers and schools, people cannot move. For this, we need a good public transport. So this means for this one, to accommodate, to meet the demand of millions of people, definitely, if the railway is properly planned, that will give us a very good opportunity to solve both transport and urban development problem.

So future urban road patterns, as it was explained by People's Committee officers for Ha Noi and HCMC, there's already approved land use plan. But sometimes, the future urban development will not just follow the plans. It's very difficult to control the growth of future land use. You see that if we do nothing, normally, urban growth will just follow the transport corridor, so we call it ribbon development. Along some of the main roads, commercial and other urban developments will take place and then that corridor becomes very congested. Then second scenario is if the satellite towns are planned, this looks quite ideal on paper, but actually, it's very difficult to develop a new town in time. It takes time to develop a new town. Then assuming we have to accommodate two million people in the next 20 years, we need more than 10 new towns. It's very difficult to develop. And also urban actual development will not just follow in that way. So this scenario is good but we have to be careful. And at the same time, urban growth also will take place in existing city center, so congestions in the urban center will not be solved with this kind of scenario. And third one is more practical. We develop together with primary transport corridor, a sort of sub centers, along normally the ring roads with a certain distance from the city center. In this case, developing the ring road is important, but unless in at the sub-center, its urban development is not associated together with development of the ring road, it will not solve or mitigate traffic congestions, and also will not promote the proper land use. So we can see these experiences in many cases in the world.

From this one, what is important is the integrated development between transport and urban development. So some of the suggested approach in reality is first to select core mass transit corridors and prepare integrated land us plan, that means each city, HCMC and HC has some 4-5 major corridors linking suburban areas and also some major key corridors within the existing center. So we select the most important mass transit corridors, which probably we can plan to develop the urban railway along that corridor and once we determine that corridor, we concentrate all our efforts into that corridor in a way that that corridor can be maximum used and provide good services. So this corridor should be very closely integrated with the master plan and the development has to be controlled along the corridor and also possible early right-of-way acquisition for the future stations or interchange facilities can be done. Then second is assuming this is the primary corridor, we develop the hierarchical bus network. As already explained, buses have different type of services with also different carrying capacity, so the bus network should also be developed in a hierarchical manner. In terms of capacity, the bus way is most efficient and bus lanes, bus priority and feeder buses for different type of the services. Then finally the convert to urban rail transit when and where the conditions are met, that means we have higher demand, we have sufficient right-of-way for interchange facilities and also we have good land use control for urban development. That means higher density development along the corridors, especially at and around the stations. Because, very roughly speaking, to justify one LRT line, we need at least 500,000-1,000,000 passenger demand for that corridor, so this can be measured. If the corridor reaches that level of demand, at that time, probably bus system can be converted to urban rail.

So integrated land use plan has to be considered very important, that means high density development long the urban rail transit corridor as we have seen in the case of Curitiba from Professor Ieada's presentation, the urban service centers also at and around the railway stations and also effective feeder transport services. Because with railway, we cannot develop a very extensive network, so to maximize the use and capacity of the railway, we have to provide a good feeder services to collect more passengers. So you can see some of the examples is that the Curitiba's case that has been explained. But also in that Curitiba model, bus way and community center is developed at the same place. So if you reach the bus stations, there's a community center, where the basic services for the citizens are provided. So before you go to offices or before you come back from offices, all the basic services you need can be done in that community center, which is 24 hours open. The lower picture is an example of a bus terminal integrated with commercial building. This is one way of attracting public transport passengers.

With regard to the choice of public transport mode, there are many different kinds. Even in buses, there are street buses, priority lane buses, exclusive lane buses and bus way; so depending on the hour and the system, the capacity or the service level are different and of course, cost is different. But buses, as long as are operated at surface, the cost is minimal. Even in bus way, past experience indicate that it's only USD2-3 million/km as against USD10-50million/km for the elevated railway. So for medium size railway, there's also different type as you see: from monorail to elevated LRT. When we come to metro, it carrying capacity is very big. However, we wonder whether the demand of the people in Ha Noi will require or need the underground. Anyway, these are the spectrum available modes of transport so we have to be careful depending upon the area and the corridors. How to chose the most appropriate system to meet the demand within the constraint of resources?

With regard to the bus lane and the bus way which I think is the most feasible options we have to consider for Ha Noi and HCMC. ... by controlling other types of vehicles. So for the bus ways or bus exclusive lanes, narrow road does not mean we cannot introduce bus lanes. If we can properly plan within the total traffic management scheme, we still can compromise with other traffic. If you have enough space like key routes bus in Nagoya, then advantage of this key route bus is the roads are shared with other types of traffic, so that during peak hours, there is only buses but for certain period of hours or for certain types of emergency vehicles, this space can be shared. Then for putting the new buses and operating at frequent interval is important, but we have to also think of all sorts of measures to attract users. So this is some of the cases also: attractive bus stop design or non-step so the people can easily get on the buses; lift provided for wheel chairs and some special bicycle parking facilities so that the people can go to the bus stops by bicycles and then park it until they come back. In fact this kind of practice has already been done in some of the cities in HCMC.

So to summarize what I have already explained, in order to achieve sustainable bus transport, we have to forecast in at least these 3 areas. First is bus operation environment; bus is very difficult to operate; bus needs good environment where the bus can operate. Bus should travel at least faster than other road traffic, otherwise, it's not attractive. So for this one, we need a very comprehensive traffic management to give the priority to buses. And also if we are doing this one within a limited road spaces, we have to also consider traffic safety, especially in Ha Noi and HCMC, where the private motorcycles are very popular. In the motorcycle-dominated traffic, if the big vehicles like buses are going without good traffic management measures, it may increase traffic accidents. So this is one of the very important areas. And also the bus is now heavily subsidized because of political decisions, but it cannot be done forever. So buses, in the long run, should be managed more properly and effectively for the management capability of the bus operators is also becoming more important. That includes special bus operation and maintenance. Now the buses are new, but to keep the buses new and attractive, proper maintenance is required. Then bus maintenance is also an area which is quite difficult. And of course marketing-the bus company should try all ways and provide various attractive measures to constantly attract consumers. And of course, the most important is the support of the society, not only the Government but also the people. People find that public transport is important, public transport is good, so it should be a part of their life. So how to cultivate the habit of using public transport? We need good corporation and support from both the Government and the society. So all these three elements are basic factors to support the future sustainable public transport.

And especially for HCMC and Ha Noi, one unique characteristic is that two cities has very good city center with a cultural heritage. This very important asset should be preserved, not destroyed by traffic congestions and other things. So this is one area of the plan how to protect mobility and accessibility within this area. There are cases in the world where in certain defined areas, private cars and vehicles are very strictly controlled while only pedestrians and public transport are given opportunities to go into those areas. So we see this as probably a big opportunity for Ha Noi and HCMC, depending on how to plan to introduce this kind of concept.

In the end, I'd like to show you Ha Noi once had a very extensive tram network that was abandoned in about 1989, that means of 13-14 years ago, the tram was in operation in Ha Noi with a very extensive network. As we see here, it serves the entire city center and all major corridors. So what we are trying to do is to revive the bus lanes along these corridors. So that mean Ha Noi already had once a solution only 13 years ago. But why was it abandoned? Probably there are many reasons, but anyway, what we'd like to emphasize is that we can start from this experience in much modernized way, put in all the lessons and experiences of other cities, then to revive this corridor to meet existing as well as future demand. I am not saying that we have to bring back the trams, but all I am trying to say is to revive this public transport system in new way for Ha Noi and probably HCMC too.

That's all for my presentation. Thank you very much for your attention.