日本財団図書館（電子図書館）　米国における船舶のクリーン推進システム開発プロジェクトに関する調査

付録4 2020年迄の米国エネルギー関連予測抜粋

■エネルギーの供給（原油換算）

■分野別エネルギーの消費量

■交通部門のエネルギー消費量

■発電能力

■再生可能エネルギー発電量

■分野別CO₂排出量

Crude Oil Equivalency Summary

Table D1.	Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary
	(Million Barrels per Day Oil Equivalent, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices	Reference Case						Annual Growth 2000-2020 (percent)
Supply, Disposition, and Prices	1999	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	Annual Growth 2000-2020 (percent)
Production
Crude Oil and Lease Condensate	5.87	5.82	5.38	5.08	5.56	5.63	-0.2%
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	1.24	1.28	1.43	1.59	1.77	1.90	2.0%
Dry Natural Gas	9.07	9.23	10.06	11.39	12.77	13.78	2.0%
Coal	10.94	10.64	11.79	12.39	12.71	13.24	1.1%
Nuclear Power	3.66	3.78	3.83	3.72	3.57	3.53	-0.3%
Renewable Energy¹	3.16	3.04	3.48	3.73	4.00	4.21	1.6%
Other²	0.78	0.52	0.32	0.40	0.49	0.44	-0.8%
Total	34.72	34.32	36.27	38.31	40.86	42.73	1.1%
Imports
Crude Oil³	8.73	9.07	10.42	11.22	11.07	11.26	1.1%
Petroleum Products⁴	1.98	2.24	2.68	3.70	4.87	6.00	5.1%
Natural Gas	1.73	1.81	2.37	2.66	2.85	2.92	2.4%
Other Imports⁵	0.27	0.36	0.50	0.45	0.51	0.51	1.8%
Total	12.71	13.48	15.98	18.03	19.30	20.69	2.2%
Exports
Petroleum⁶	0.92	1.02	0.80	0.90	0.95	1.00	-0.1%
Natural Gas	0.08	0.12	0.19	0.30	0.31	0.27	4.2%
Coal	0.72	0.72	0.67	0.64	0.63	0.65	-0.5%
Total	1.72	1.85	1.66	1.84	1.90	1.91	0.2%
Discrepancy⁷	0.14	0.80	0.21	0.06	0.07	0.05	N/A
Consumption
Petroleum Products⁸	18.07	18.20	19.55	21.35	23.08	24.49	1.5%
Natural Gas	10.66	11.04	12.36	13.63	15.18	16.32	2.0%
Coal	10.16	10.49	11.32	11.95	12.29	12.81	1.0%
Nuclear Power	3.66	3.78	3.83	3.72	3.57	3.53	-0.3%
Renewable Energy¹	3.17	3.05	3.48	3.73	4.01	4.21	1.6%
Other⁹	0.13	0.18	0.26	0.18	0.22	0.21	0.7%
Total	45.84	46.74	50.80	54.56	58.34	61.57	1.4%
Net Imports-Petroleum	10.01	10.49	12.57	14.31	15.27	16.51	2.3%
Prices (2000 dollars per unit)
World Oil Price (dollars per barrel)¹⁰	17.60	27.72	22.73	23.36	24.00	24.68	-0.6%
Natural Gas Wellhead Price (dollars per thousand cubic feet)¹¹	2.27	3.60	2.66	2.85	3.07	3.26	-0.5%
Coal Minemouth Price (dollars per ton)	17.01	16.45	14.99	14.11	13.44	12.79	-1.3%
Average Electricity Price (cents per kilowatthour)	6.7	6.9	6.4	6.3	6.3	6.5	-0.3%

Table A2.	Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)
	(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source	Reference Case						Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
Sector and Source	1999	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
Total Energy Consumption
Distillate Fuel・・・	7.56	7.80	8.84	9.75	10.61	11.31	1.9%
Kerosene・・・	0.15	0.14	0.13	0.13	0.12	0.12	-0.6%
Jet Fuel⁹・・・	3.46	3.58	3.88	4.46	5.12	5.82	2.5%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas・・・	2.90	2.93	3.05	3.23	3.41	3.56	1.0%
Motor Gasoline^s2・・・	16.04	16.29	17.93	19.59	21.14	22.42	1.6%
Petrochemical Feedstock・・・	1.31	1.32	1.36	1.45	1.54	1.59	0.9%
Residual Fuel・・・	2.27	2.40	1.63	1.59	1.67	1.72	-1.6%
Other Petroleum¹²・・・	4.56	4.16	4.59	5.01	5.25	5.44	1.4%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・	38.25	38.63	41.40	45.20	48.85	51.99	1.5%
Natural Gas・・・	22.57	23.43	26.16	28.85	32.14	34.63	2.0%
Metallurgical Coal・・・	0.75	0.78	0.69	0.64	0.59	0.54	-1.8%
Steam Coal・・・	20.75	21.50	23.27	24.66	25.43	26.65	1.1%
Net Coal Coke Imports・・・	0.06	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.14	0.16	4.6%
Coal Subtotal・・・	21.56	22.34	24.03	25.41	26.16	27.35	1.0%
Nuclear Power・・・	7.74	8.03	8.10	7.87	7.55	7.49	-0.3%
Renewable Energy¹⁷・・・	6.70	6.48	7.37	7.90	8.48	8.94	1.6%
Liquid Hydrogen・・・	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A
Electricity Imports¹⁶・・・	0.28	0.38	0.54	0.38	0.45	0.44	0.7%
Total・・・	97.10	99.29	107.61	115.61	123.64	130.85	1.4%
Energy Use and Related Statistics
Delivered Energy Use・・・	72.60	74.06	80.39	87.15	93.60	99.31	1.5%
Total Energy Use・・・	97.10	99.29	107.61	115.61	123.64	130.85	1.4%
Population (millions)・・・	273.25	275.69	288.09	300.24	312.66	325.33	0.8%
Gross Domestic Product (billion 1996 dollars)・・・	8,857	9,224	10,418	12,312	14,399	16,525	3.0%
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (million metric tons carbon equivalent) ・・・	1,517.2	1,561.7	1,693.5	1,834.7	1,965.4	2,087.8	1.5%

Table A2.	Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)
	(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)

Sector and Source	Reference Case						Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
Sector and Source	1999	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
Transportation
Distillate Fuel⁸・・・	5.16	5.42	6.35	7.27	8.09	8.72	2.4%
Jet Fuel⁹・・・	3.46	3.58	3.88	4.46	5.12	5.82	2.5%
Motor Gasoline²・・・	15.86	16.05	17.67	19.32	20.86	22.12	1.6%
Residual Fuel・・・	0.93	1.14	1.07	1.08	1.09	1.10	-0.2%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas・・・	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.04	0.05	4.6%
Other Petroleum¹⁰・・・	0.22	0.22	0.25	0.26	0.28	0.29	1.4%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・	25.65	26.42	29.24	32.43	35.48	38.11	1.8%
Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas・・・	0.75	0.79	0.80	0.86	0.95	1.02	1.3%
Compressed Natural Gas・・・	0.02	0.02	0.06	0.09	0.12	0.14	9.8%
Renewable Energy (E85)¹¹・・・	0.01	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	5.0%
Liquid Hydrogen・・・	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A
Electricity・・・	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.09	0.11	3.1%
Delivered Energy・・・	26.49	27.32	30.19	33.50	36.59	39.43	1.9%
Electricity Related Losses・・・	0.13	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.18	0.21	2.4%
Total・・・	26.61	27.45	30.33	33.66	36.87	39.64	1.9%
Delivered Energy Consumption for All Sectors
Distillate Fuel・・・	7.47	7.73	8.78	9.70	10.55	11.24	1.9%
Kerosene・・・	0.15	0.14	0.13	0.13	0.12	0.12	-0.6%
Jet Fuel⁹・・・	3.46	3.58	3.88	4.46	5.12	5.82	2.5%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas・・・	2.90	2.93	3.05	3.23	3.41	3.56	1.0%
Motor Gasoline²・・・	16.04	16.29	17.93	19.59	21.14	22.42	1.6%
Petrochemical Feedstock・・・	1.31	1.32	1.36	1.45	1.54	1.59	0.9%
Residual Fuel・・・	1.26	1.54	1.37	1.43	1.48	1.51	-0.1%
Other Petroleum¹²・・・	4.56	4.16	4.59	5.01	5.25	5.44	1.4%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・	37.15	37.69	41.07	45.00	48.61	51.71	1.6%
Natural Gas⁶・・・	18.71	19.11	20.58	21.87	23.06	24.14	1.2%
Metallurgical Coal・・・	0.75	0.77	0.69	0.64	0.59	0.54	-1.8%
Steam Coal・・・	1.80	1.80	1.83	1.86	1.91	1.98	0.5%
Net Coal Coke Imports・・・	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.11	0.14	0.16	4.6%
Coal Subtotal・・・	2.61	2.64	2.60	2.62	2.64	2.68	0.1%
Renewable Energy¹³・・・	2.79	2.93	3.19	3.44	3.74	4.00	1.6%
Liquid Hydrogen・・・	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	N/A
Electricity・・・	11.34	11.69	12.94	14.23	15.54	16.77	1.8%
Delivered Energy・・・	72.60	74.06	80.39	87.15	93.60	99.31	1.5%
Electricity Related Losses・・・	24.50	25.23	27.22	28.46	30.04	31.54	1.1%
Total・・・	97.10	99.29	107.61	115.61	123.64	130.85	1.4%
Electric Generators¹⁴
Distillate Fuel・・・	0.09	0.08	0.06	0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.9%
Residual Fuel・・・	1.01	0.86	0.26	0.16	0.19	0.22	-6.7%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・	1.10	0.93	0.32	0.21	0.24	0.28	-5.9%
Natural Gas・・・	3.86	4.32	5.58	6.98	9.08	10.49	4.5%
Steam Coal・・・	18.95	19.69	21.44	22.80	23.52	24.67	1.1%
Nuclear Power・・・	7.74	8.03	8.10	7.87	7.55	7.49	-0.3%
Renewable Energy¹⁵・・・	3.91	3.55	4.18	4.46	4.74	4.94	1.7%
Electricity Imports¹⁶・・・	0.28	0.38	0.54	0.38	0.45	0.44	0.7%
Total・・・	35.84	36.92	40.16	42.69	45.58	48.32	1.4%

Table A7.

Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption

Key Indicators and Consumption	Reference Case						Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
Key Indicators and Consumption	1999	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
Key Indicators
Level of Travel (billions)
Light-Duty Vehicles <8,500 pounds(VMT)	2305	2340	2659	2981	3318	3631	2.2%
Commercial Light Trucks (VMT)¹	67	70	77	89	101	112	2.4%
Freight Trucks >10,000 pounds (VMT)	201	214	251	285	323	360	2.6%
Air (seat miles available)	1137	1184	1317	1603	1949	2342	3.5%
Rail (ton miles traveled)	1382	1415	1609	1757	1907	2066	1.9%
Domestic Shipping (ton miles traveled)	665	689	741	792	855	910	1.4%
Energy Efficiency Indicators
New Light-Duty Vehicle (miles per gallon)²	24.0	24.5	25.1	25.7	26.6	27.2	0.5%
New Car (miles per gallon)²	27.7	28.6	29.6	30.2	31.0	31.7	0.5%
New Light Truck (miles per gallon)²	20.7	21.1	21.6	22.3	23.3	23.8	0.6%
Light-Duty Fleet (miles per gallon)³	19.7	19.8	19.8	20.1	20.5	21.0	0.3%
New Commercial Light Truk (MPG)¹	14.0	14.2	14.4	14.9	15.5	15.9	0.6%
Stock Commercial Light Truck (MPG)¹	13.6	13.6	14.1	14.4	14.9	15.4	0.6%
Aircraft Efficiency (seat miles per gallon)	51.7	52.1	53.8	55.9	58.1	60.3	0.7%
Freight Truck Efficiency (miles per gallon)	5.9	5.9	6.0	6.0	6.1	6.3	0.3%
Rail Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu)	2.8	2.8	2.9	3.1	3.3	3.4	1.0%
Domestic Shipping Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu)	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.4	0.2%
Energy Use by Mode (quadrillion Btu)
Light-Duty Vehicles	14.80	14.97	16.74	18.49	20.07	21.37	1.8%
Commercial Light Trucks¹	0.61	0.64	0.69	0.77	0.85	0.91	1.8%
Freight Trucks⁴	4.55	4.80	5.51	6.24	6.91	7.42	2.2%
Air⁵	3.50	3.62	3.92	4.51	5.19	5.91	2.5%
Rail⁶	0.58	0.58	0.63	0.66	0.69	0.72	1.0%
Marine⁷	1.50	1.73	1.68	1.73	1.78	1.82	0.3%
Pipeline Fuel	0.75	0.79	0.80	0.86	0.95	1.02	1.3%
Lubricants	0.18	0.18	0.21	0.22	0.24	0.25	1.7%
Total	26.49	27.32	30.19	33.50	36.69	39.43	1.9%
Energy Use by Mode (million barrels per day oil equivalent)
Light-Duty Vehicles	7.73	7.82	8.85	9.76	10.59	11.27	1.8%
Commercial Light Trucks¹	0.32	0.33	0.36	0.41	0.45	0.48	1.9%
Freight Trucks⁴	2.03	2.14	2.47	2.81	3.12	3.35	2.3%
Railroad	0.23	0.24	0.26	0.27	0.28	0.28	0.9%
Domestic Shipping	0.13	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.17	0.18	-1.2%
International Shipping	0.39	0.48	0.45	0.45	0.45	0.46	-0.2%
Air⁵	1.46	1.51	1.62	1.89	2.21	2.56	2.7%
Military Use	0.29	0.30	0.34	0.35	0.36	0.36	1.0%
Bus Transportation	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.10	0.6%
Rail Transportation⁶	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.05	0.05	0.05	1.9%
Recreational Boats	0.16	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19	0.20	0.9%
Lubricants	0.09	0.09	0.10	0.11	0.11	0.12	1.7%
Pipeline Fuel	0.38	0.40	0.40	0.44	0.48	0.52	1.3%
Total	13.33	13.73	15.28	16.95	18.55	19.92	1.9%