日本財団　図書館


付録4 2020年迄の米国エネルギー関連予測抜粋
■エネルギーの供給（原油換算）
■分野別エネルギーの消費量
■交通部門のエネルギー消費量
■発電能力
■再生可能エネルギー発電量
■分野別CO2排出量
　
Crude Oil Equivalency Summary
　
Table D1.
Total Energy Supply and Disposition Summary
　
(Million Barrels per Day Oil Equivalent, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Supply, Disposition, and Prices Reference Case Annual Growth 2000-2020 (percent)
1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Production
Crude Oil and Lease Condensate 5.87 5.82 5.38 5.08 5.56 5.63 -0.2%
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 1.24 1.28 1.43 1.59 1.77 1.90 2.0%
Dry Natural Gas 9.07 9.23 10.06 11.39 12.77 13.78 2.0%
Coal 10.94 10.64 11.79 12.39 12.71 13.24 1.1%
Nuclear Power 3.66 3.78 3.83 3.72 3.57 3.53 -0.3%
Renewable Energy1 3.16 3.04 3.48 3.73 4.00 4.21 1.6%
Other2 0.78 0.52 0.32 0.40 0.49 0.44 -0.8%
Total 34.72 34.32 36.27 38.31 40.86 42.73 1.1%
Imports
Crude Oil3 8.73 9.07 10.42 11.22 11.07 11.26 1.1%
Petroleum Products4 1.98 2.24 2.68 3.70 4.87 6.00 5.1%
Natural Gas 1.73 1.81 2.37 2.66 2.85 2.92 2.4%
Other Imports5 0.27 0.36 0.50 0.45 0.51 0.51 1.8%
Total 12.71 13.48 15.98 18.03 19.30 20.69 2.2%
Exports
Petroleum6 0.92 1.02 0.80 0.90 0.95 1.00 -0.1%
Natural Gas 0.08 0.12 0.19 0.30 0.31 0.27 4.2%
Coal 0.72 0.72 0.67 0.64 0.63 0.65 -0.5%
Total 1.72 1.85 1.66 1.84 1.90 1.91 0.2%
Discrepancy7 0.14 0.80 0.21 0.06 0.07 0.05 N/A
Consumption
Petroleum Products8 18.07 18.20 19.55 21.35 23.08 24.49 1.5%
Natural Gas 10.66 11.04 12.36 13.63 15.18 16.32 2.0%
Coal 10.16 10.49 11.32 11.95 12.29 12.81 1.0%
Nuclear Power 3.66 3.78 3.83 3.72 3.57 3.53 -0.3%
Renewable Energy1 3.17 3.05 3.48 3.73 4.01 4.21 1.6%
Other9 0.13 0.18 0.26 0.18 0.22 0.21 0.7%
Total 45.84 46.74 50.80 54.56 58.34 61.57 1.4%
Net Imports-Petroleum 10.01 10.49 12.57 14.31 15.27 16.51 2.3%
Prices (2000 dollars per unit)
World Oil Price (dollars per barrel)10 17.60 27.72 22.73 23.36 24.00 24.68 -0.6%
Natural Gas Wellhead Price (dollars per thousand cubic feet)11 2.27 3.60 2.66 2.85 3.07 3.26 -0.5%
Coal Minemouth Price (dollars per ton) 17.01 16.45 14.99 14.11 13.44 12.79 -1.3%
Average Electricity Price (cents per kilowatthour) 6.7 6.9 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.5 -0.3%
　
Table A2.
Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)
　
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source Reference Case Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Total Energy Consumption
Distillate Fuel・・・ 7.56 7.80 8.84 9.75 10.61 11.31 1.9%
Kerosene・・・ 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 -0.6%
Jet Fuel9・・・ 3.46 3.58 3.88 4.46 5.12 5.82 2.5%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas・・・ 2.90 2.93 3.05 3.23 3.41 3.56 1.0%
Motor Gasolines2・・・ 16.04 16.29 17.93 19.59 21.14 22.42 1.6%
Petrochemical Feedstock・・・ 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.45 1.54 1.59 0.9%
Residual Fuel・・・ 2.27 2.40 1.63 1.59 1.67 1.72 -1.6%
Other Petroleum12・・・ 4.56 4.16 4.59 5.01 5.25 5.44 1.4%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・ 38.25 38.63 41.40 45.20 48.85 51.99 1.5%
Natural Gas・・・ 22.57 23.43 26.16 28.85 32.14 34.63 2.0%
Metallurgical Coal・・・ 0.75 0.78 0.69 0.64 0.59 0.54 -1.8%
Steam Coal・・・ 20.75 21.50 23.27 24.66 25.43 26.65 1.1%
Net Coal Coke Imports・・・ 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.11 0.14 0.16 4.6%
Coal Subtotal・・・ 21.56 22.34 24.03 25.41 26.16 27.35 1.0%
Nuclear Power・・・ 7.74 8.03 8.10 7.87 7.55 7.49 -0.3%
Renewable Energy17・・・ 6.70 6.48 7.37 7.90 8.48 8.94 1.6%
Liquid Hydrogen・・・ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A
Electricity Imports16・・・ 0.28 0.38 0.54 0.38 0.45 0.44 0.7%
Total・・・ 97.10 99.29 107.61 115.61 123.64 130.85 1.4%
Energy Use and Related Statistics
Delivered Energy Use・・・ 72.60 74.06 80.39 87.15 93.60 99.31 1.5%
Total Energy Use・・・ 97.10 99.29 107.61 115.61 123.64 130.85 1.4%
Population (millions)・・・ 273.25 275.69 288.09 300.24 312.66 325.33 0.8%
Gross Domestic Product (billion 1996 dollars)・・・ 8,857 9,224 10,418 12,312 14,399 16,525 3.0%
Carbon Dioxide Emissions (million metric tons carbon equivalent) ・・・ 1,517.2 1,561.7 1,693.5 1,834.7 1,965.4 2,087.8 1.5%
　
Table A2.
Energy Consumption by Sector and Source (Continued)
　
(Quadrillion Btu per Year, Unless Otherwise Noted)
Sector and Source Reference Case Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Transportation
Distillate Fuel8・・・ 5.16 5.42 6.35 7.27 8.09 8.72 2.4%
Jet Fuel9・・・ 3.46 3.58 3.88 4.46 5.12 5.82 2.5%
Motor Gasoline2・・・ 15.86 16.05 17.67 19.32 20.86 22.12 1.6%
Residual Fuel・・・ 0.93 1.14 1.07 1.08 1.09 1.10 -0.2%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas・・・ 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.05 4.6%
Other Petroleum10・・・ 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.26 0.28 0.29 1.4%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・ 25.65 26.42 29.24 32.43 35.48 38.11 1.8%
Pipeline Fuel Natural Gas・・・ 0.75 0.79 0.80 0.86 0.95 1.02 1.3%
Compressed Natural Gas・・・ 0.02 0.02 0.06 0.09 0.12 0.14 9.8%
Renewable Energy (E85)11・・・ 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 5.0%
Liquid Hydrogen・・・ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A
Electricity・・・ 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.11 3.1%
Delivered Energy・・・ 26.49 27.32 30.19 33.50 36.59 39.43 1.9%
Electricity Related Losses・・・ 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.21 2.4%
Total・・・ 26.61 27.45 30.33 33.66 36.87 39.64 1.9%
Delivered Energy Consumption for All Sectors
Distillate Fuel・・・ 7.47 7.73 8.78 9.70 10.55 11.24 1.9%
Kerosene・・・ 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 -0.6%
Jet Fuel9・・・ 3.46 3.58 3.88 4.46 5.12 5.82 2.5%
Liquefied Petroleum Gas・・・ 2.90 2.93 3.05 3.23 3.41 3.56 1.0%
Motor Gasoline2・・・ 16.04 16.29 17.93 19.59 21.14 22.42 1.6%
Petrochemical Feedstock・・・ 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.45 1.54 1.59 0.9%
Residual Fuel・・・ 1.26 1.54 1.37 1.43 1.48 1.51 -0.1%
Other Petroleum12・・・ 4.56 4.16 4.59 5.01 5.25 5.44 1.4%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・ 37.15 37.69 41.07 45.00 48.61 51.71 1.6%
Natural Gas6・・・ 18.71 19.11 20.58 21.87 23.06 24.14 1.2%
Metallurgical Coal・・・ 0.75 0.77 0.69 0.64 0.59 0.54 -1.8%
Steam Coal・・・ 1.80 1.80 1.83 1.86 1.91 1.98 0.5%
Net Coal Coke Imports・・・ 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.11 0.14 0.16 4.6%
Coal Subtotal・・・ 2.61 2.64 2.60 2.62 2.64 2.68 0.1%
Renewable Energy13・・・ 2.79 2.93 3.19 3.44 3.74 4.00 1.6%
Liquid Hydrogen・・・ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 N/A
Electricity・・・ 11.34 11.69 12.94 14.23 15.54 16.77 1.8%
Delivered Energy・・・ 72.60 74.06 80.39 87.15 93.60 99.31 1.5%
Electricity Related Losses・・・ 24.50 25.23 27.22 28.46 30.04 31.54 1.1%
Total・・・ 97.10 99.29 107.61 115.61 123.64 130.85 1.4%
Electric Generators14
Distillate Fuel・・・ 0.09 0.08 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 -0.9%
Residual Fuel・・・ 1.01 0.86 0.26 0.16 0.19 0.22 -6.7%
Petroleum Subtotal・・・ 1.10 0.93 0.32 0.21 0.24 0.28 -5.9%
Natural Gas・・・ 3.86 4.32 5.58 6.98 9.08 10.49 4.5%
Steam Coal・・・ 18.95 19.69 21.44 22.80 23.52 24.67 1.1%
Nuclear Power・・・ 7.74 8.03 8.10 7.87 7.55 7.49 -0.3%
Renewable Energy15・・・ 3.91 3.55 4.18 4.46 4.74 4.94 1.7%
Electricity Imports16・・・ 0.28 0.38 0.54 0.38 0.45 0.44 0.7%
Total・・・ 35.84 36.92 40.16 42.69 45.58 48.32 1.4%
　
Table A7.
Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption
Key Indicators and Consumption Reference Case Annual Growth 2000-2020(percent)
1999 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Key Indicators
Level of Travel (billions)
Light-Duty Vehicles <8,500 pounds(VMT) 2305 2340 2659 2981 3318 3631 2.2%
Commercial Light Trucks (VMT)1 67 70 77 89 101 112 2.4%
Freight Trucks >10,000 pounds (VMT) 201 214 251 285 323 360 2.6%
Air (seat miles available) 1137 1184 1317 1603 1949 2342 3.5%
Rail (ton miles traveled) 1382 1415 1609 1757 1907 2066 1.9%
Domestic Shipping (ton miles traveled) 665 689 741 792 855 910 1.4%
Energy Efficiency Indicators
New Light-Duty Vehicle (miles per gallon)2 24.0 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.6 27.2 0.5%
New Car (miles per gallon)2 27.7 28.6 29.6 30.2 31.0 31.7 0.5%
New Light Truck (miles per gallon)2 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.3 23.8 0.6%
Light-Duty Fleet (miles per gallon)3 19.7 19.8 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.0 0.3%
New Commercial Light Truk (MPG)1 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.5 15.9 0.6%
Stock Commercial Light Truck (MPG)1 13.6 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 0.6%
Aircraft Efficiency (seat miles per gallon) 51.7 52.1 53.8 55.9 58.1 60.3 0.7%
Freight Truck Efficiency (miles per gallon) 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.3 0.3%
Rail Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu) 2.8 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 1.0%
Domestic Shipping Efficiency (ton miles per thousand Btu) 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 0.2%
Energy Use by Mode (quadrillion Btu)
Light-Duty Vehicles 14.80 14.97 16.74 18.49 20.07 21.37 1.8%
Commercial Light Trucks1 0.61 0.64 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.91 1.8%
Freight Trucks4 4.55 4.80 5.51 6.24 6.91 7.42 2.2%
Air5 3.50 3.62 3.92 4.51 5.19 5.91 2.5%
Rail6 0.58 0.58 0.63 0.66 0.69 0.72 1.0%
Marine7 1.50 1.73 1.68 1.73 1.78 1.82 0.3%
Pipeline Fuel 0.75 0.79 0.80 0.86 0.95 1.02 1.3%
Lubricants 0.18 0.18 0.21 0.22 0.24 0.25 1.7%
Total 26.49 27.32 30.19 33.50 36.69 39.43 1.9%
Energy Use by Mode (million barrels per day oil equivalent)
Light-Duty Vehicles 7.73 7.82 8.85 9.76 10.59 11.27 1.8%
Commercial Light Trucks1 0.32 0.33 0.36 0.41 0.45 0.48 1.9%
Freight Trucks4 2.03 2.14 2.47 2.81 3.12 3.35 2.3%
Railroad 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.9%
Domestic Shipping 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 -1.2%
International Shipping 0.39 0.48 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.46 -0.2%
Air5 1.46 1.51 1.62 1.89 2.21 2.56 2.7%
Military Use 0.29 0.30 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.36 1.0%
Bus Transportation 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.6%
Rail Transportation6 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 1.9%
Recreational Boats 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.9%
Lubricants 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 1.7%
Pipeline Fuel 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.44 0.48 0.52 1.3%
Total 13.33 13.73 15.28 16.95 18.55 19.92 1.9%







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