AS a result of increasing warnings by members of the climatological and scientific community about the possible harmful effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to assess the available scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information in the field of climate change. A series of international conferences followed, and in 1990 the United Nations established the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change. After a series of negotiating sessions, the text of the Framework Convention on Climate Change was adopted at the United Nations on May 9,1992, and opened for signature at Rio de Janeiro on June 4, 1992.

　

The objective of the Framework Convention was to "・・・ achieve ・・・stabilization of the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."All signatories agreed to implement measures to mitigate climate change and prepare periodic emissions inventories. In addition, the developed country signatories agreed to adopt national policies with a goal of returning anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels. The Convention excludes chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons, which are controlled by the 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

　

In response to the Framework Convention, the United States issued the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) [12], published in October 1993, which consisted of a series of 44 actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The actions included voluntary programs, industry partnerships, government incentives, research and development, regulatory programs including energy efficiency standards, and forestry actions. Greenhouse gases affected by the CCAP actions included carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons. At the time the CCAP was developed, the Clinton Administration estimated that the actions it enumerated would reduce total net emissions of these greenhouse gases in the United States to 1990 levels by 2000 [13] . That reduction was not achieved, however, and net U.S, greenhouse gas emissions increased from 1990 to 2000. Although the CCAP no longer stands as a unified program, some of its individual programs remain in effect.

　

　

The Framework Convention established the Conference of the Parties (COP) to "review the implementation of the Convention and ・・・make, within its mandate, the decisions necessary to promote the effective implementation." Moving beyond the 2000 target in the Convention, the first Conference of the Parties (COP-1) met in Berlin in 1995 and issued the Berlin mandate, an agreement, to "begin a process to enable it to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000." COP-2, held in Geneva in July 1996, called for negotiations on quantified limitations and reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and policies and measures for COP-3. From December I through ll, 1997, representatives from more than 160 countries met at COP-3 in Kyoto, Japan. In the resulting Kyoto Protocol to the Framework Convention, targets for greenhouse gas emissions were established for the developed nations―the Annex I countries―relative to their emissions levels in 1990 [14].

　

The Kyoto Protocol targets are to be achieved, on average, from 2008 through 2012, the first commitment period. The overall emissions reduction target for the Annex I countries is 5.2 percent below 1990 levels. Relative to 1990, the individual targets range from an 8-percent reduction for the European Union (EU) to a 10-percent increase for Iceland. The reduction target for the United States is 7 percent below 1990 levels. Non-Annex I countries have no targets under the Protocol, although the Protocol reaffirms the commitments of the Framework Convention by all parties to formulate and implement climate change mitigation and adaptation programs.

　

The Protocol was opened for signature on March 16, l998, for a 1-year period. It will enter into force 90 days after 55 Parties, including Annex I countries accounting for at least 55 percent of the 1990 carbon dioxide emissions from Annex I nations, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval, or accession. By March 15, 1999, 84 countries had signed the Protocol, including all but two of the Annex I countries, Hungary and Iceland. As of October 26, 2001, 43 countries had ratified or acceded to the Protocol [15]; however, only one Annex I nation, Romania, has ratified the Protocol at this point.

　

Energy use is a natural focus of greenhouse gas reductions. In 1990, total greenhouse gas emissions in the United States were 1,678 million metric tons carbon equivalent, of which carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels accounted for 1,352 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 81 percent [16]. By 2000, total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions had risen to 1,906 million metric tons carbon equivalent, with 1,562 million metric tons carbon equivalent, or 82 percent, from fuel combustion. Because energy-related carbon dioxide emissions constitute such a large percentage of total greenhouse gas emissions, any action or policy to reduce emissions will affect U.S. energy markets.

　

The Kyoto Protocol includes a number of flexibility measures for compliance. Reductions in other greenhouse gases―methane, nitrous oxide, hydro-fluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride―can offset carbon dioxide emissions [17]. "Sinks" that absorb carbon dioxide―forests, other vegetation, and soils―may also be used to offset emissions.

　

Emissions trading among the Annex I countries is also permitted under the Protocol, and groups of Annex I countries may jointly meet the total commitment of all the member nations either by allocating a share of the total reduction to each member or by trading emissions rights. Joint Implementation projects are also allowed among the Annex I countries, allowing a nation to take emissions credits for projects that reduce emissions or enhance sinks in other Annex I countries; however, it is indicated in the Protocol that trading and Joint Implementation are supplemental to domestic actions. The Protocol also establishes a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a program under which Annex I countries can earn credits for projects that reduce emissions in non-Annex I countries if the projects lead to measurable, long-terrm emissions benefits.

　

The targets specified in the Protocol can be achieved on average over the first commitment period of 2008 to 2012 rather than in each individual year. No targets are established for periods after 2012, although the Conference of the Parties will initiate consideration of future commitments at least 7 years before the end of the first commitment period. Banking―carrying over emissions reductions that go beyond the target from one commitment period to some subsequent commitment period―is allowed. The Protocol indicates that each Annex I country must have made demonstrable progress in achieving its commitments by 2005.

　

In November 1998 at COP-4 in Buenos Aires, Argentina, a plan of action was adopted to finalize a number of the implementation issues at COP-6, held in the Netherlands on November 13 through 24, 2000, at The. Hague. Negotiations at COP-5 in Bonn, Germany, from October 25 through November 5, 1999, focused on developing rules and guidelines for emissions trading, joint implementation, and the CDM; negotiating the definition and use of forestry activities and additional sinks; and understanding the basics of a compliance system, with an effort to complete the work at COP-6. [18].

　

The major goals of the COP-6 negotiations held in fall 2000 were to develop the concepts in the Protocol in sufficient. detail that it could be ratified by enough Annex I countries to be put into force and to encourage significant action by the non-Annex I countries to meet the objectives of the Framework Convention [19]. The COP-6 negotiations focused on a range of technical issues, including emissions reporting and review, communication by non-Annex I countries, technology transfer,and assessments of capacity needs for developing countries and countries with economies in transition.

　

The COP-6 negotiations were suspended in November 2000, however, without agreement on a number of issues, including the appropriate amount of credit for carbon sinks, such as forests and farmlands, and the use of flexible mechanisms, such as international emissions trading and the CDM, to reduce the cost of meeting the global emissions targets [20]. COP-6 was rescheduled to resume in 2001 in Bonn, Germany [21].

　

COP-6 negotiations (Part 2) resumed in Bonn, Germany, on July 16, 2001, again focusing on developing the concepts in the Protocol in sufficient detail that it could be ratified by enough Annex I countries to be put into force. On July 23, 2001, 178 member nations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change reached an agreement, known as the Bonn Agreement, on the operational rulebook for the Kyoto Protocol.

　

The Bonn Agreement creates a Special Climate Change Fund and a Protocol Adaptation Fund to help developing countries adapt to climate change impacts, obtain clean technologies, and limit the growth in their emissions; allows developed nations to use carbon sinks to comply, in part, with their Kyoto emission reduction commitments; and establishes rules for the CDM, emissions trading, and Joint Implementation projects. The Bonn Agreement also emphasizes that domestic actions shall constitute a significant element of emission reduction efforts made by each Party, and establishes a Compliance Committee with a facilitative branch and an enforcement branch. In terms of compliance, for every ton of gas that a country emits over its target, it will be required to reduce an additional 1.3 tons during the Protocol's second commitment period, which starts in 2013.

　

The Bonn Agreement was forwarded for official adoption at COP-7, which was held in Marrakech, Morocco, from October 29 to November 9, 2001. On November 9, 2001, 165 nations reached agreement on a number of implementation rules for the Bonn Agreement and the Kyoto Protocol. The agreement, referred to as the "Marrakech Accords," covered a number of issues, including rules for international emissions trading; a compliance regime to enforce emissions targets, with the issue of legally binding targets deferred to a future Conference of the Parties; fungible accounting rules that allow emissions trading among Annex I countries, CDM and Joint Implementation mechanisms; and a new emission unit for carbon "sinks" that cannot be banked for future commitment periods [22]. COP-8 is scheduled for October 23 to November l, 2002, with India as a possible location [23]. COP-8 will, among other things, review the adequacy of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, including those of developing countries, with the intent of framing the issue for discussion at COP-9.

　

The Bush Administration has indicated that it has no objection to the participation of other countries in the Kyoto Protocol, even without U.S. participation, and has indicated that it intends to develop U.S. alternatives to the Kyoto Protocol, including the National Climate Change Technology Initiative [24]. As noted above, the Protocol can enter into force with ratification by enough Annex I nations to account for 55 percent of total Annex I carbon dioxide emissions in 1990. Because the United States accounted for about 35 percent of 1990 Annex I carbon dioxide emissions, the Protocol can enter into force without ratification by the United States.