Kyoto University Tanabe, Wakayama, JAPAN

　

A theoretical model is introduced for realizing a coastal upheaval by ocean water loading. An increase of the ocean water loading can be expected by the resultant effect of the global warming, which might be caused by the climatological warming and glacial melting which must be resulted by the recent human activities with utilizing the fossil fuels and with producing the chemical products which affect strongly the earth's environment. This model is a simple linearized elastic model of a thin plate assumed to be equivalent to the existing tectonic plate on the Earth. This model plate is for demonstrating and evaluating upheaval just around the coastal zone. A set of the differential equations for the equivalent elastic thin plate is formulated first by introducing several equivalent parameters specifying the elastic constants. The solution under some assumed conditions suggests that the ocean water loading is effective to give a set back of the coastline. In this work, a brief note on time factor is given though the author's interest is mainly in the upheaval pattern around the coastline as a final equilibrium pattern. The solution might be well applied for some other geophysical problems, for example, dynamical understanding of an existing profile of geographic section and a dynamical mechanism to form a co-seismic upheaval pattern.

　

　

Center for Environmental Research Leipzig/Halle, GERMANY

wolf@grossman.de

　

The information society is globally rapidly developing. It causes the emergence of the new economy, which is based on using large amounts of information. It brings new lifestyles. Old industries decline, many jobs disappear, and more new, different jobs emerge elsewhere. This large-scale sociological transformation could dramatically alter emissions of Green House Gases. Moreover, this transformation allows totally new strategies in dealing with possible climate change and in decreasing vulnerabilities to climate extremes.

In order to better understand these complex interactions and to support policy making related to climate change we need a new set of models that couple sociological and physical climate factors.

　

There are a number of coupled economic-physical General Circulation Models. What is missing are models that deal with the aforementioned changes. In several research projects we could develop a dynamic computer systems model that depicts this transformation and its underlying driving forces. A new group has formed to couple this sociological model with climate models for a wide variety of applications in research and decision-support.

　

　

School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii, USA

lorenz@hawaii.edu

　

Recently Grossmann's Information-Society Integrated Systems [ISIS] model has been extended to include the effects of climate fluctuations and climate change on societal elements, such as economy, environment, human knowledge, and human attitude. The new models are interactive (coupled) and allow climate change to influence societal parameters and vice versa.

　

This paper presents first applications of the new models to cases of statistical climate parameters and to cases of hypothetical climate forecasts. First approximations to actual cases are also described.