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9. IMPACT OF THE ASIAN CRISIS AND DEVALUATION OF THE WON
The CESA Complaint focuses on the period after 1997, which marked the start of the Asian crisis.
 
All of the newbuilding contracts with which the complaint is concerned are placed in US dollars, with the price being fixed on the date of contracting. Overall up to 80% of the materials and equipment will be sourced in Korea, with only 20% being sourced on the international market.
 
Accordingly, the dramatic fall in the value of the Won following the Asian crisis provided a dramatic boost to the competitive position of South Korean yards over all of their competitors including in particular Japan and Europe.
 
The impact of this can be seen from the graph below, which is based on monthly average exchange rate figures taken from the Financial Times:
z1078_01.jpg
It is apparent from this graph that Korean yards gained a huge advantage from the depreciation from an exchange rate of 800 Korean Won to the US dollar at the end of 1996 to 1,750 Won at the end of 1997. When the Won was at its lowest point in late 1997 Korean yards could have quoted a price over 40% below the prices at which they were quoting in 1996 and still received the same value in Won. Yearly average exchange rate figures from the IMF, which are shown in the Drewry Shipbuilding Report, show a lowest average exchange rate of 1,400 Won to the US Dollar during 1997. However, even on the basis of these averaged figures it is clear that Korean yards obtained a huge, and quite legitimate, advantage from the depreciation of the Won.
 
The exchange rate has not recovered to 1996 levels since the current rate is 1,300 Korean Won to the US dollar. This is still nearly 40% below the exchange rate of 800 Korean Won to the US dollar in 1996.
 
The CESA complaint focuses entirely on the period between 1997 and 2000, which matches the period following the collapse of the Korean Won against the US Dollar. It is clear against this background that one of the major factors which has allowed Korean yards to quote lower prices since 1997 was not illegal subsidies as alleged by CESA, but the depreciation of the Won against the US Dollar.
CONCLUSION
 
It is very clear that the depreciation of the Won against the US Dollar in 1997 made Korean yards more competitive and allowed them to quote lower prices than European and Japanese yards.
10. CONCLUSION - EFFECT OF THE COMPLAINT
The CESA allegations are strongly denied. European Yards lost their dominant position in the Shipbuilding market to Japan in the 1960s and 1970s before Korea built up any significant market share.
 
European Yards had already lost the ability to compete with either Korea or Japan for larger series built vessels such as tankers, bulk carriers and large container vessels well before 1997. Lower labour costs, much higher productivity and lower materials costs give Korea a decisive, and completely legitimate, competitive advantage in competing for these types of vessel.
 
In addition, the cost of materials has fallen and Korean yards have made further productivity gains since 1997. As a result Korean yards have been able to further improve their ability to quote competitive prices.
 
The depreciation of the Korean Won from around 800 Won to the US Dollar in 1996 to a low of around 1,750 Won to the Dollar in 1997 (yearly average for 1997 1400 Won), gave Korean yards a very substantial further competitive advantage over European yards since shipbuilding contracts are priced in US dollars.
 
Korean Yards do not enjoy subsidies from the Korean Government, unlike European yards who have enjoyed a range of both open and hidden subsidies over many years. European Yards are unable to compete because of high labour costs, lack of investment, high material costs and failure to achieve productivity levels matching the best Korean and Japanese shipyards. Korean shipyards are not to blame for any of these factors.
 
In addition, the following factors are important:
 
1. The availability of competitively priced ships is vital to the World economy which relies on shipping for the vast majority of international trade.
 
2. Europe's proposals that prices should be increased would adversely impact on renewal of the world tanker fleet, which is necessary to avoid further damage to the environment. Pending IMO rules which have been drafted in the wake of the tanker disasters of recent years provide that single skinned tankers will need to be replaced by double-hulled vessels by 2005. These are also EU initiatives aimed at phasing out single hulls.
 
3. If the IMO proposals are agreed as expected, around 90 million DWT of new double skinned tankers will need to be built over the next four years. This represents around 30%of the World tanker fleet. It is vital that these tankers are constructed at the most economic price.
 
4. The Third Party Submissions show that if the price levels at which European and Korean yards bid are similar owners would still choose to build in Korea because of non-price factors including quality, build time and delivery plus after sales service and re-sale value.
 
5. All of the Third Party Submissions oppose the CESA complaint on substantial grounds. Not one supports the CESA position.
 
6. Third Party submissions show that owners would not order from European yards even if prices for Korean vessels rose by 20% - 30% as CESA want. Owners would either reduce ordering or would order from Japan at lower price levels or from other yards in countries which may be outside WTO disciplines.
 
7. Korean yards are a major source of business for European suppliers of marine equipment for the 20% of the materials which are normally sourced outside Korea for vessels built for non-Korean owners. If prices were raised artificially then it is likely that orders would simply transfer to Japan or other countries outside the EU. In the case of Japan almost all of the materials used are domestically sourced and European suppliers of marine equipment would therefore lose out.
 
8. The Third Pan Submissions point out that even if the price charged by Korean yards to non- Korean owners was artificially raised by 20% - 30% the yards would remain free to sell vessels to domestic Korean shipowners at current economically justified price levels. This would result in European shipowners being at a competitive disadvantage.
 
For all the reasons set forth in the present paper and based on the economic analysis contained in the Drewry Shipbuilding Report, which should be read together with this Position Paper, the KSA submits that the complaint should be dismissed. Even if the EU wrongly concluded that Korea bestowed actionable subsidies upon its shipbuilding industry(which the KSA strongly denies), the facts prove that such subsidies can not have caused any injury or adverse trade effects. Hence, the prerequisite under the TBR Regulation foi the adoption of commercial measures is absent and no recourse to WTO dispute settlement is warranted.
 
At the same time. the KSA wishes to emphasise that the EU shipyards have for several decades benefited from openly granted or hidden EU subsidies, which the KSA submits are incompatible with the provisions of the WTO Subsidies Code. The TBR Regulation provides that in the assessment of whether to adopt commercial policy measures, the EU should take into account the broader Community's interests. The KSA believes that it would be against the EU's broader interests to challenge the compatibility of the alleged Korean subsidies for which sound legal arguments confirm the compatibility with the provisions of the WTO Subsidies Code while the EU itself has for years granted subsidies of which a substantial part are even contract-based.
 
The KSA, therefore, respectfully submits that the TBR examination procedure should be terminated upon a finding of absence of actionable subsidies inflicting injury or adverse trade effects.
ANNEX 1
COMPLETIONS BY YEAR
Year Korea Japan AWES Otheers Total
Thou GT % Thou GT % Thou GT % Thou GT % Thou GT %
1948 - - - - 2,116 85.3 366 14.7 2,482 100
1971 - - 11,132 45.6 10,391 42.6 2,865 11.7 24,388 100
1972 15 0.1 12,857 48.1 10,589 39.6 3,288 12.3 26,749 100
1973 14 0.0 14,751 48.5 11,865 39.0 3,779 12.4 30,409 100
1974 313 0.9 16,894 50.4 12,544 37.4 3,791 11.3 33,542 100
1975 410 1.2 16,991 49.7 13,070 38.2 3,732 10.9 34,203 100
1976 814 2.4 15,868 46.8 12,714 37.5 4,527 13.3 33,923 100
1978 582 2.0 11,708 66.8 10,731 39.0 4,531 16.5 17,532 100
1979 604 3.3 6,307 34.7 6,625 36.4 1,657 25.6 18,196 100
1980 495 3.5 4,697 32.9 4,686 32.8 4,411 30.9 14,289 100
1981 929 5.5 8,400 49.6 4,131 24.4 3,472 20.5 16,932 100
1982 1,401 8.3 8,163 48.5 3,864 23.0 3,392 20.2 16,820 100
1983 1,539 9.7 6,670 41.9 4,224 26.5 3,478 21.9 15,911 100
1984 1,473 8.0 9,711 53.0 3,499 19.1 3,651 19.9 18,334 100
1985 2,620 14.4 9,503 52.3 2,958 16.3 3,076 16.9 18,157 100
1986 3,642 21.6 8,178 48.5 2,059 12.2 2,966 17.6 16,865 100
1987 2,091 17.1 5,708 46.6 1,977 16.1 2,483 20.3 12,259 100
1988 3,174 29.1 4,040 37.0 1,715 15.7 1,980 18.2 10,909 100
1989 3,101 23.4 5,365 40.5 1,988 15.0 2,781 21.0 13,236 100
1990 3,441 23.2 6,663 44.9 2,910 19.6 1,826 12.3 14,840 100
1991 3,737 23.2 7,315 45.4 3,139 19.5 1,931 12.0 16,122 100
1992 4,520 24.5 7,852 42.6 3,268 17.7 2,804 15.2 18,439 100
1993 4,666 23.2 8,930 44.4 4,026 20.0 2,495 12.4 20,117 100
1994 4,230 21.8 8,643 44.6 3,691 19.0 2,820 14.5 19,384 100
1995 6,218 27.8 9,300 41.6 4,244 19.0 2,588 11.6 22,350 100
1996 7,374 28.7 10,182 39.7 4,865 19.0 3,245 12.6 25,666 100
1997 8,124 32.6 9,864 39.6 3,933 15.8 3,005 12.1 24,926 100
1998 7,243 29.0 10,206 40.9 4,424 17.7 3,107 12.4 24,980 100
1999 9,159 33.7 11,070 40.7 3,973 14.6 3,005 11.0 27,207 100
2000 P 11,806 40.6 11,318 38.9 3,514 12.1 2,463 8.5 29,101 100
 
Source : World Shipbuilding Statistics, Lloyd's Register
Note: 1. Ships over 100 GT
2. From 1996, Poland is included in AWES.
3. P: Preliminary
 
ANNEX 2
WORLD ORDER BOOK 1 JANUARY 2001
 
SHIPTYPE SHIPSIZE KOREA JAPAN EU CHINA POLAND OTHERS TOTAL SHIPS
TANKER 10〜60K DWT 67 16 20 27 10 30 170
60〜120K DWT 48 16 0 7 0 1 72
120〜200K DWT 45 6 0 0 0 7 58
200K + DWT〜 58 23 0 5 0 0 86
Sub-Total 218 61 20 39 10 38 386
BULK CARRIER 10〜40K DWT 12 43 2 35 0 2 94
40〜60K DWT 10 115 0 21 11 21 178
60〜80K DWT 48 100 0 26 0 2 176
80K + DWT〜 18 44 0 0 0 7 69
Sub-Total 88 302 2 82 11 32 517
CONTAINER 100〜499 TEU 0 0 0 2 0 3 5
Small 500〜999 TEU 0 4 21 9 1 7 42
1,000〜1,999 TEU 11 19 16 17 16 14 93
Medium 2,000〜2,999 TEU 23 4 25 0 32 15 99
3,000〜3,999 TEU 9 0 6 0 10 5 30
Large Post-Panamax 4,000〜8,000 TEU 128 24 1 13 10 3 179
Sub-Total 171 51 69 41 69 47 448
LNG 135-140,000 CBM 11 11 3 0 0 0 25
Sub-Total   488 425 94 162 90 117 1376
Total   513 477 612 293 144 627 2666
Sources:
1. Newbuilding Order book - Simpson Spence & Young
2. LNG - World Shipyard Monitor - Clarksons
3. Total - Lloyd's Register
Note: Norway is classified under EU








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