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World Trade Developments
Seaborne trade and world port traffic always reflect developments in world trade. Therefore, it is useful to have a look at the global development patterns before proceeding with the analysis of the former. According to the International Trade Statistics 2000 published by the World Trade Organization, data available for the first six months of 2000 indicate that the value of world merchandise trade grew by 14% or four times faster than in 1999. The volume of world merchandise trade rose by 12%. Estimates for 2000 show that the real growth of world merchandise exports should exceed some 10% and thereby match the best annual trade growth in the 1990s. For 2001 a deceleration of world trade to 7% is expected. The following are some of the key developments:
 
Regional Trade Highlights
・ North America continued to be the major motor of global trade expansion in 1999 and 2000, accounting for more than one half of the growth in both world merchandise and commercial services trade. North America also accounts for more than one fifth of world imports. Intra-North American trade accounts for nearly 40% of North America's exports.
 
・ Western Europe's exports continues to offer a mixed picture with overall growth stagnant, mainly due to slow growth in intra-European trade. In 1999, shipments to North America rose by 11.5%. Exports to the transition economies fell by 10%, and to Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East by 6 to 7%. The recovery of Western Europe's exports to Asia remained a moderate 2%. The double digit growth to Japan and China was offset by further contractions of shipments to Asian developing countries.
 
・ Following the severe contraction of dollar value trade in 1998, Asia's merchandise and commercial services trade expanded dramatically in 1999 and 2000 - once again exceeding the global average. The recovery of intra-regional trade, exchange rate developments, higher commodity prices, and strong global demand for information technology products were the principal factors underpinning Asia's trade expansion in both 1999 and 2000.
 
・ About one half of Africa's merchandise exports are destined for Western Europe. Asia gained in importance as an export destination for African exports (15% of Africa's total merchandise exports) largely due to Asian developing countries' growing demand for African mining products and, in particular, fuels. North America accounts for about 15% of Africa's total merchandise exports. Intra-African trade accounts for only 10% of Africa's merchandise exports.
 
・ Latin America's merchandise trade is highly concentrated among a few countries. Mexico alone accounts for 45% of the region's total merchandise trade by value. Together with Brazil, the figure rises to 60%. The top five to include Chile and Argentina and Colombia account for more than three quarters of the region's total merchandise exports and imports.ii
Trade by Products Highlights
・ Western Europe, North America and Japan together accounted for four fifths of world clothing imports.
・ North America is the world's largest net importer and Asia the largest net exporter of automotive products. Western Europe remains the largest exporting and importing region and intra-European trade accounts for about four fifths of Western Europe's exports of automotive products.
 
・ Asia accounts for nearly one half of world exports of office and telecom equipment. Developing countries in Asia account not only for more than one third of world export, but also for one quarter or world imports due to their extensive intra-industry exchanges.
 
・ Of the nearly 25 countries for which fuel accounts for one half or more of their total export earnings, 10 are situated in the Middle East. The Middle East accounts for nearly 30% of world fuel exports.iii
Seaborne Trade Developments
Reflecting the developments in world trade, world seaborne trade recorded its fourteenth consecutive annual increase in absolute terms in 1999, reaching a record high of 5.23 billion tons, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development(UNCTAD)'s Review of Maritime Transport 2000 report. UNCTAD noted that sustained demand in the United States, and the recovery in Asia were the main engines of global trade expansion in 1999 and 2000, thus contributing to the continued growth in world seaborne trade. The report further noted the following highlights:
 
Regional Trade Highlights
・ Asian countries(includes the Middle East)maintained the highest share of goods loaded, accounting for about 45 percent of crude oil, 40 percent of oil products and 15 percent of the world dry cargo trade by origination.
 
・ The share of developing countries of Latin America in goods loaded has remained relatively stable over the last 30 years at around 15%. The share of goods unloaded has also remained relatively stable at around 5% of the world total. The only significant structural change has been its share of world crude oil loadings increasing to close to 20 percent, up from less than 10 percent a decade ago.
 
・ The share of goods loaded by African developing countries decreased considerably in the 1970s and has been relatively stagnant at around 10% since 1980. In terms of goods unloaded, their imports remain at a low level of 4% of world seaborne trade.
 
・ The share of developed countries(United States, Canada, Western Europe, Japan)in goods loaded and unloaded is around 45 percent and 65 percent, respectively, of the world total. Following considerable increases in the 1970s and 1980s, this share has been fairly constant since 1990.iv
 
Trade by Product Highlights
・ As the world's largest crude oil import market, the United States remains the primary market for Latin American crude oil and is expected to receive approximately 90% of all Latin American shipments for the years ahead. More than 80% of Japan's crude oil are supplied by the Middle East Gulf, while northern and southern Europe's crude oil imports from non-European sources continue on a downward trend. China and India are expected source more of their crude oil imports from the Middle East Gulf in the years ahead.
 
・ The Far East serves as the largest source of seaborne petroleum product exports. The Far East newly industrialized economies(NIEs)remain both a major supplier and a major consumer of petroleum products. Half of its petroleum product imports are intra-NIEs shipments. Inbound shipments from Latin America and Europe will satisfy most of the increasing U.S. demand.
 
・ At the global level, the two largest export markets, Australia and Brazil, generate more than three quarters of seaborne iron ore shipments. Over 80% of Australian exports go to Asian markets, whereas Europe and Asia account for 45% and 40%, respectively, of Brazil's exports.
 
・ Australia accounts for over one third of global seaborne coal exports. Half of Australia's coal exports are destined for Japan. South Africa is the second largest seaborne exporter with 10-12% of the world total. In terms of coal imports, Japan dominates with about 50% of the world's total.
 
・ The United States accounts for about 50% of the world's seaborne trade in grains, followed by Canada(15%)and Australia(8-10%). On the import side, Japan leads with about 35%, followed by the Far East NIEs(25%)and the Middle East(20%).
 
・ In terms of liner shipments of containerized cargo, North America and Latin America together account for about 40% of Europe's imports. The Far East NIEs and Japan together account for about 35% of Europe's imports. The Americas account for about 40% of Europe's exports while Asia accounts for about 30% of Europe's exports. Japan's exports to other Asian countries account for about 45% of its total exports.v
 
 Total world seaborne trade in terms of tonnage is still dominated by the bulk trades. According to Fearnleys, a widely respected consulting firm specializing in bulk trades, almost 60 percent can be attributed to five major commodities: crude oil, oil products, coal, iron ore, and grain (see figure 1).
 
Figure 1: Breakdown of World's Seaborne Trade by Tonnage
Commodity % Share of World Total, 1999
Crude Oil 30
Oil Products 8
Iron Ore 8
Coal 9
Grain 4
Other Cargo* 41
Total 100
*Other cargo includes cars, liquefied gas and chemicals, containers, and other general cargo Source: Fearnleys Review, various issues
 
  In terms of value, containers account for roughly 60 percent of the world's trade and that value is expected to increase as it furthers its penetration of the general cargo market(see figure 2).
Figure 2: Containerization of Global General Cargo Trade(million tons)
  1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 est.
General Cargo 527 552 673 720 800
Containerized Cargo 120 172 269 360 440
% Containerized 23% 31% 40% 50% 55%
Source: Drewry Shipping Consultants
 
 This is an interesting development, since conventional wisdom holds that since crude oil is a strategic commodity that it must have high-value content. As we see from the structure of seaborne trade, low-value commodities like oil, coal, and grain dominate in terms of tonnage, but containers which carries high-value commodities like telecom equipment, computer parts, and automotive components dominate seaborne trade in terms of value.
 








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