The other member countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS; the club of former republics of the USSR, minus the Baltic states) are heavily dependent on Russia for their energy resources, and economically in general. The chaos in Russia's economy touched off an economic crisis in the CIS. Despite their acute predicament, the republics of Russia's "near abroad" are trying to wean themselves from this position of dependency. Also, although still in the minority, opposition to Russian political and economic support is slowly growing. This trend towards a more distant relationship with Russia has both positive and negative repercussions for the NSR, and will continue to attract careful observation.
The opening of any trade route occurs because the shipping industry needs it and finds it useful. However much Russia and other interested countries may wish to open the NSR on grounds of logic or national policy, they cannot do the job on their own. The NSR is the first proposed alternative to the Suez Canal route to find recognition with the global shipping community for its competitiveness in terms of length of voyage, profitability and safety. Amid the ever-changing trends of the shipping industry, the NSR will also have to demonstrate a sufficient degree of flexibility.
No model of the global environment could be complete without an understanding of the phenomena that impinge on the Arctic region. It is apparent that more observation and survey work in the Arctic is needed. Not only will this research provide information useful for the substantial opening of the NSR, but it will also break down the popular apprehension people feel for the severe natural environment of the Arctic, bringing about a greater understanding of the precious value of the Arctic nature and its ecosystems. With enough preparation, care and patience in human activities, further research in the Arctic can prove that this icy region is not as hostile to human society as it first appears.
The International Northern Sea Route Programme (INSROP; see Appendix 1) was a cooperative enterprise planned and executed by Japan, Russia and Norway to clarify the requirements for the opening of the northern sea route (NSR). The motivation of each of the participating countries is as varied as the countries themselves. For Russia, the project holds out the prospect of a boost to the Russian society and economy. The Norwegians are interested primarily in gathering data on the marine environment. Japan seeks access to Russian data pertaining to shipping in this region. To these various ends, each country is pressing forward with its own domestic research program as well as international research efforts.
While it is true that survey work on problems on land in the Arctic has been sparse, research data on the central topic of INSROP, the Arctic Ocean, is today recognized as one of the most comprehensive bodies of scientific knowledge on this subject in the world. Researchers with little interest in the commercial shipping aspects of the Arctic Ocean, including geographers, oceanographers and ethnographers, have acknowledged the immense value of this irreplaceable body of research results. As a coda for the scientific efforts of the 20th century and a prelude to those of the 21st, no body of work could be more appropriate.
Unfortunately these studies did not provide a definitive answer to the question of the feasibility of opening the NSR to international shipping. Given the current state of politics and the economy in Russia, it may seem a foregone conclusion that the answer is no. But if conditions in Russia, which are the key to the NSR question, should improve and stabilize, the results of the INSROP research could quickly be marshaled to provide the fastest, simplest and most appropriate path to the creation of a commercial shipping lane.
Today new shipping routes can be established much faster than in Vasco da Gama's day. It was many years after da Gama circumnavigated the Cape of Good Hope that the path he discovered became a regular trade route.
