With detailed positive analyses, this study verified the inevitability of food shortages. For example, it compared demand for and supply of grains in 1950 and 1990, and made forecasts of those in 2030. According to its forecasts, China will produce 263 million tons of grains and consume 479 million tons, creating a 216 million tons shortage. Likewise, India will have 45 million tons shortage in 2030. The shortage expected in China is said to exceed the current total grain exports of the world.5) Brown did, of course, suggest several measures for avoiding the possible catastrophe, as well as warning of the food crisis. One of his suggestions is the stabilization of the population as soon as possible, quite a natural, but notable idea.
Conversely, there are a number of optimistic views as well. A. H. Toffler6) is one such optimist, and is as well known as Brown in Japan. He takes a bright view of the future, maintaining that the current status is no worse than in the past, that India shows a potential for increased food production based on advanced bio-technology. He has demonstrated that although India's grain production reached 93 million tons in the 1960s and was thought to have hit the ceiling, the country is now producing 191 million tons of grains, and feeding an additional population of several hundred million population on top of the 1960s population of 500 million. His view is an optimistic one resting on strong expectations and hopes.
As has been seen, both views are more or less biased arguments, and it is impossible to prove that one or the other is correct. John Bongaarts once said that it was desirable to be both moderately optimistic and pessimistic, without taking either too optimistic or too pessimistic views. The prospects for the 21st century are, however, becoming increasingly obscure.
The Next 50 Years
While obfuscating factors only increase with regard to the future, this does not mean that we cannot paint any picture of tomorrow. There is a hope in the population issue. The 1992 projection of the 2050 world population was 10 billion, but the United Nations adjusted the figure down to 8.9 billion six years later, i.e., in the projections issued in 1998.
