Based upon a population projection derived from the most recent version of the NUPRI model (Ogawa and Matsukura, 1995), we will examine Japan's future pattern of population aging over the period 1995-2025. Table 1 presents projected results. Japan's total population, which was 125.6 million in 1995, is projected to increase to 128.6 million by 2007. After reaching this peak, the nation's population is expected to decrease continuously to a level of 121.7 million by 2025. Though not shown in Table 1, the total number of those aged 65 and over more than doubles from 18.3 million in 1995 to 33.4 million in 2021, after which it is projected to decline gradually. Moreover, due to sexual mortality differentials at higher ages, the predominance of women among the aged population is expected to become increasingly pronounced over time. This feminization of the elderly population suggests that in a virtually universal marriage society such as Japan, the number of widows will grow rapidly in the next few decades. Because of declining family support by adult children (Ogawa, 1993; Ogawa and Retherford, 1993b, 1997), the increase in elderly widows is very likely to lead to a considerable rise in the demand for institutional care in the years ahead.
Several important points emerge with regard to the age compositional changes displayed in Table 1. First of all, in 1995, the proportion of the population at ages 0-14 is 15.9 percent, and the proportion of those aged 65 and over is 14.5 percent. Throughout the projected period, the former is on the downward trend, but the latter increases continuously. Towards the end of the projected period, however, the growth rate of the share of the elderly population slows down, thus approaching a higher aging plateau (Schurer, Zhao, and Laslett, 1989). In 1997, the elderly aged 65 and over begin to outnumber the young at ages 0-14, as indicated by the index of aging.
Secondly, as indicated in Table 2, although the proportion of those aged 65 and over is presently smaller in Japan than in several other industrialized nations, Japan's population is likely to become the world's oldest known human population in the early part of the next century. More importantly, the Japanese population will reach the world's highest level of aging at an unprecedented rate, as can be seen by inspecting Table 3. Japan's aged population reached the 10-percent level in the year 1985 and was the latest among all the industrialized nations listed in Table 3. Despite this delayed onset, Japan is the first country in which the aged comprise more than 20 percent of the total population among all the countries appearing in this table. The length of time required to increase from 10 to 20 percent of the Japanese population is only 22 years. Compared with such European countries as Sweden and Germany, Japan will age at a tempo approximately three times as fast.
