日本財団 図書館


OVERVIEW OF AGING AND DIMINISHING

POPULATION IN JAPAN

 

Shigesato Takahashi

National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

 

Introduction

According to the new future population projections prepared in 1997 by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, it is predicted that the aging population in Japan will reach a much faster and higher level than the 1992 projection. The difference between the 1992 and 1997 projection is that the 1997 projection is based on the feeble assumption on the future trends of the fertility rate.

Especially, the declining trend of the fertility rate keeping below the recent year's population replacement level appears to significantly affect the future's aging population level, and leads to the diminishing future population. The discussion below is based on the premise of the new population estimate, and summarizes the recent trend of the fertility rate. From the results of the recent population estimates, the traits regarding Japan's aging population will be outlined.

 

The Recent Year's and Future Fertility Trends

Japan's total fertility rate has continuously declined yearly since 1973. Although from 1982 to 1984 the rate had increased momentarily, after that it began to decline (see Figure 1). The year 1989 was the lowest rate of 1.57 recorded in the history of Japan's vital statistics and was lower than the year of Hinoeuma (year 1966). Thereafter, the rate had continued to decline with minimal changes, which eventually reached 1.42 Ievel by 1995.

The direct cause for Japan's declining fertility rate is due to the delaying marriage age among the young generation. Also, due to the reduced prevalence of marriage the proportion of the age group among the child-bearing females has significantly declined. Examining the females in their late 20s, 80.3% were married in 1970, but by the year 1995 the number was reduced to 49.6%.

The decline of the proportion marriage was due to increased proportion of never-married and proportion of ever-married. But, since the proportion of never-married at the same time had increased from 18.3% in 1970 to 48.0% in 1995, it can be concluded that the rapid increase of proportion of never-married had caused the above mentioned decrease of the proportion marriage (see Figure 2 regarding the changes of the proportion of never-married as well as other age groups). Besides, the increased proportion of never-married has certain correlation to the change in the marriage time. That is, the females' average first-time marriage age had greatly increased from the age 24.2 in 1970 to the age 26.3 in 1995. It can be concluded that the increased proportion of never-married among the age 20s means significant numbers of

 

 

 

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