7. Prospects of World Grain Supply and Demand for Year 2020, and the Needed Reforms in the Japanese Agricultural, Forestry and Fishery System.
Projected grains supply and demand in 2020 of the another are shown in Table 2 for the world, a group of countries classified by income level, China, India and Japan based on the above long term analysis of the world grain supply and demand. As regards the demand, the production conversion ratios from grains to meats and eggs are estimated based on the supply and demand balance data of the FAO for 1984-86 and expected long term increase in feed grain use in the livestock sector. The increase in the demand for feed grains is estimated by projected population growth rate, GDP growth rate and income elasticity of demand for meats and eggs. Medium estimates of the UN are used for the population and population growth rate. The FAO statistics were used to determine demand for meats, eggs and grains in 1993. As regards the supply, the growth rates of grains production, listed in the same table reflect the recent decline in the growth rates of grain production mentioned above.
There are two ways for a long term forecast of grain supply and demand. One is forecasting demand and supply independently such as the way used by me here and Lester Brown, and the other method incorporates the effect of the difference between supply and demand on the product price that is used by the World Bank, FAO, IFPRI and the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery. 36) Brown, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery and I forecast that there would be a significant global grains shortfall in 2020 and/or 2030 and the prices of grains will rise, and others forecast that the world grain prices will decrease in early 21st century. The reasons for the different forecasts are basically differences in the assumptions for the projections reflecting the researchers experiences and values. Therefore it can be said that the long term
