4. Hopes and fears about the Supply and demand of the world's food.
When considering the global supply and demand situation, with a few notable exceptions in Africa, the food production rate managed to exceed the population increase rate until the 1980's as a result of advances in science technology symbolized by the 'Green Revolution'. However, by the mid 1990's, many people had become concerned about the balance of the world's food supply and demand, with the international grain markets facing a very tight situation as reserve stocks fell to their lowest levels ever, due in the main to the poor American grain harvest of 1995. Many people recognize that the earth's environment and resources, which are the basic requirements for food production, are limited, and against the backdrop of an ever expanding population which now stands at 5.7 billion and is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2025, only 30 years later, they feel uneasy about the future supply meeting the demand.
The views being expressed about the global supply and demand by international institutions and agricultural organizations of leading countries are generally optimistic, with the FAO report on prospects for 2010 maintaining that malnutrifion will be reduced, and the grain price will hold steady or even tend to fall. However, Mr. Lester Brown of the World Watch Research Institute gives a note of warning, saying, "The biggest menace for our future is not war, but food shortages." As if to bear him out, a report by the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) highlights the possibility of a global rice shortage induced by a slowdown in the increase rate of rice harvests per unit. Opinions on the future prospects for world food supply and demand run to both ends of the hope spectrum, optimistic and pessimistic. Which is correct? Only time will tell.
These apparently conflicting opinions, optimism and pessimism, towards the long term prospects of global supply and demand are not necessarily totally incompatible. The optimists view covers only the next decade or so, while the pessimists are warning against one particular possibility that is relevant to a
